Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 907
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
9X 907 · OGG → MUE
departs 6:03 AM HT · arrives 7:06 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 4%
Sun 11/1 4%
Mon 11/2 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUE more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MUE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MUE?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MUE that day
↓
6am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
MUE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.