Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1040 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1040 · DFW → JFK

departs 1:59 PM CT · arrives 6:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1040 · DFW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?