AA 1078 · PHX → ORD

departs 3:19 PM MT · arrives 8:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.87 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1078 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?