Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1138 · ORD → ATL

departs 1:03 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1138 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?