Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1219 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 1219 · ABQ → ORD

departs 2:02 PM MT · arrives 5:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ ABQ usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1219 · ABQ → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?