Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1264 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1264 · ORD → DFW

departs 10:59 AM CT · arrives 1:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±7 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1264 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?