Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1285 · DFW → ORD

departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 4:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1285 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?