Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1290 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 1290 · DFW → ORD

departs 4:26 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1290 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?