Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1472 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1472 · DFW → JAX

departs 12:58 PM CT · arrives 4:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1472 · DFW → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?