Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1543 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 1543 · ORD → SAN

departs 4:52 PM CT · arrives 7:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1543 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?