Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1684 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1684 · MSY → DFW

departs 10:59 AM CT · arrives 12:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1684 · MSY → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?