Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1724 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1724 · DFW → BUF

departs 11:48 AM CT · arrives 3:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1724 · DFW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?