Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1742 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1742 · ORD → RSW

departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

RSW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1742 · ORD → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?