Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1767 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1767 · DFW → EYW

departs 1:01 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1767 · DFW → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?