tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1851 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow

AA 1851 · SAN → PHX

departs 1:20 PM PT · arrives 2:46 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
60% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6.7d 2d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to PHX?

  1. On time or early
    39%
  2. 15–30 min late
    14%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    28%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    11%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    6%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.