Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1916 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 1916 · ORD → SAT

departs 10:37 AM CT · arrives 1:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1916 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?