Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2046 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2046 · SJC → DFW

departs 12:05 PM PT · arrives 5:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Fridays in October are usually busier than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2046 · SJC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?