AA 2147 · DFW → ONT

took off 8:16 PM CT · expected to land 9:05 PM PT (scheduled 8:08 PM CT → 9:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ONT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

ONT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2147 · DFW → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?