AA 2322 · PHL → TPA

departs 8:09 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM ET

Your aircraft is N128UW (A320), coming in as AA 2265 from BNA: landed 6:35 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2322 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?