Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2396 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 2396 · FAT → PHX

departs 1:02 PM PT · arrives 2:54 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2396 · FAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?