Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 2459 · SNA → JFK

departs 12:31 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2459 · SNA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?