Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 2512 · DFW → TPA

departs 3:18 PM CT · arrives 6:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2512 · DFW → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?