Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 2686 · CLT → STL

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 7:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2686 · CLT → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?