Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2735 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2735 · ORD → SMF

departs 10:20 AM CT · arrives 1:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2735 · ORD → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?