AA 2761 · DFW → STL

departs 4:33 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2761 · DFW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?