AA 278 · PHL → EDI

took off 9:47 PM ET · expected to land 7:45 AM GMT (scheduled 9:45 PM ET → 8:46 AM GMT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at EDI more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EDI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at PHL that day

↓ Arrivals into EDI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EDI (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 278 · PHL → EDI

Odds over time

How late will it get to EDI?