Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2834 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2834 · DFW → SJC

departs 11:56 AM CT · arrives 1:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2834 · DFW → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?