Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2834 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 2834 · SJC → DFW

departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 8:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2834 · SJC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?