Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2923 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2923 · DFW → CAE

departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CAE?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CAE

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

CAE (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2923 · DFW → CAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CAE?