Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2929 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2929 · DFW → OKC

departs 1:12 PM CT · arrives 2:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OKC that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ OKC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

OKC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2929 · DFW → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?