Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3033 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 3033 · ORD → ATL

departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3033 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?