AA 3111 · ORD → LAX

left the gate 8:08 PM CT · taxiing (scheduled 5:55 PM CT → 8:29 PM PT)

Your aircraft is N902AA (A321), coming in as AA 1592 from LAS: landed 6:27 PM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3111 · ORD → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?