Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3134 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

departs 10:11 AM CT · arrives 12:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?