AA 3164 · DFW → OAX

took off 12:37 PM CT · landed 1:59 PM CST (scheduled 12:16 PM CT → 2:17 PM CST)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at OAX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAX

↓ Arrivals into OAX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

OAX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3164 · DFW → OAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to OAX?