Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 36 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 36 · DFW → MAD

departs 4:52 PM CT · arrives 8:16 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

↓ Arrivals into MAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

MAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 36 · DFW → MAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAD?