AA 532 · ORD → PHL

took off 7:55 PM CT · expected to land 10:26 PM ET (scheduled 7:39 PM CT → 10:57 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,167 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

PHL (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 532 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?