Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 59 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 59 · LAX → KOA

departs 12:24 PM PT · arrives 3:37 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.06 in

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,733 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 59 · LAX → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?