Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 5 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 5 · DFW → HNL

departs 11:30 AM CT · arrives 2:26 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 5 · DFW → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?