AA 682 · PHL → IND

took off 11:08 PM ET · expected to land 12:38 AM ET (scheduled 9:50 PM ET → 11:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IND?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
83%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 682 · PHL → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?