Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 746 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

AA 746 · PHL → NCE

departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 7:26 AM CET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at NCE more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to NCE?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

NCE (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 746 · PHL → NCE

Odds over time

How late will it get to NCE?