Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 842 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 842 · DFW → MSY

departs 5:32 PM CT · arrives 7:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,167 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 842 · DFW → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?