AA 869 · MKE → DFW

took off 8:09 PM CT · expected to land 10:09 PM CT (scheduled 5:44 PM CT → 8:27 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
64%
Over 2 hours late
36%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 869 · MKE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?