AA 873 · PHL → RDU

departs 8:54 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Your aircraft is N840AW (A319), coming in as AA 1120 from PIT: landed 6:58 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 873 · PHL → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?