AA 951 · JFK → GRU

took off 7:39 PM ET · expected to land 5:06 AM -03 (scheduled 7:39 PM ET → 6:06 AM -03)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at GRU more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRU?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into GRU at that hour are usually not late

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

GRU (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 951 · JFK → GRU

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRU?