AC 1042 · AUS → YYZ

departs 12:03 PM CT · arrives 4:26 PM EDT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into YYZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.12 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1042 · AUS → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?