Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 1512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AC 1512 · YYZ → EWR

departs 8:54 PM EDT · arrives 10:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1512 · YYZ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?