AC 501 · YYZ → ORD

departs 8:16 AM EDT · arrives 9:02 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 8am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 501 · YYZ → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?