Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 506 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AC 506 · ORD → YYZ

departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 5:19 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 506 · ORD → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?