AC 591 · YYZ → IAH

departs 7:56 AM EDT · arrives 10:30 AM CT

Your aircraft is CGVUO (BCS3), coming in as AC 786 from LAX: landed 9:05 PM EDT.

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 7am departures from YYZ are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 591 · YYZ → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?