Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 83 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AF 83 · SFO → CDG

departs 3:37 PM PT · arrives 9:34 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 71h before departure

Arrive at CDG more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CDG?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CDG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 83 · SFO → CDG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDG?